Transforming public prediction market probabilities into actionable defense intelligence. We analyze market signals from prediction markets alongside traditional OSINT sources to identify patterns, assess risks, and forecast geopolitical outcomes.
Prediction markets are one signal among many. All intelligence is cross-verified against traditional OSINT, news, and public data sources.
NXG Defense monitors public prediction markets as an additional intelligence dimension, combining market collective expectations with traditional sources.
We do not operate a prediction market ourselves. Instead, we track publicly available markets — primarily on Polymarket and other platforms — and analyze probability shifts, volume spikes, and liquidity changes as signals for geopolitical, defense, and security events.
Our analysis covers military conflict risk, defense policy changes, international sanctions, election outcomes, diplomatic events, and other security-relevant markets. All findings are published as intelligence notes for research and operational planning.
Monitor market-implied probabilities for defense, geopolitical, and security events across multiple prediction platforms.
Identify unusual volume, liquidity, and probability movements that may signal emerging events or information leaks.
Correlate prediction market signals with traditional OSINT, news, government data, and satellite imagery for validation.
High-relevance public markets tracked by NXG Defense Intelligence. Markets linked to source platforms for real-time data.
Will a comprehensive military-to-military communication agreement be restored between the US and China by end of 2026?
Will all NATO members meet the 2% GDP defense spending target by 2027?
Will a formal ceasefire agreement be reached in the Russia-Ukraine conflict by Q2 2027?
Will a major naval incident occur in the South China Sea within the next 6 months?
Will Japan publicly announce a nuclear weapons program by end of 2027?
Will a new multilateral security framework be established in the Middle East by 2027?
Short-form intelligence commentary on prediction market movements, probability shifts, and market-vs-reality divergence analysis.
Intelligence notes will be published here as analysis completes.
First publications incoming — subscribe to the cooperation form for updates.
This platform provides intelligence analysis based on publicly available prediction market data. It is not affiliated with Polymarket or any other prediction market platform.
All data is used for research, OSINT analysis, and risk assessment purposes. Key principles:
This platform does not constitute financial, investment, betting, legal, or military action advice. NXG Defense Corp. is a Canadian defense technology company.
For research partnerships, intelligence feeds, and data collaboration.
Building a prediction-market-powered OSINT intelligence layer for defense and security analysis.